Trader who knows what he is talking about...

Move fwd already.

Blow up the debt, you blow up the banks. Blow up the banks, you blow up the $700tr derivatives market. Blow up the $700tr derivatives market and the world we’ve known since Bretton Woods changes forever. It’s the same thing that had Hank Paulson corralling senior members of Congress into a wood-paneled room telling them that if he doesn’t get TARP the world will end. He was wrong then and the fear-mongers in Europe are wrong now. Let the banks blow up, let the equity holders get wiped out and the debt holders take haircuts. Guess what? The sun will continue to rise. Sensible, solvent players will move in to pick up the pieces and the real business of healing a horribly broken economy can finally begin but not one second before we force real capitalism down the throats of the current crop of pseudo-capitalists running the world. We’ve had a nice run as the world’s super power. Almost 66 years at the top of the world isn’t too shabby. And no matter what happens during the next few years that would see the US knocked off its perch as sole super power, we will still be an economically important, vital member of the global community. The sooner we acknowledge that the current economic system, that we in the US sit firmly on top of, is broken and needs massive, perhaps even painful fixing, the sooner we can get back to being a great country. In the meantime, the Bernank will tell you how he plans on extending the bad system at 2:15pm. Enjoy.

Euro Doesn't Work. It will be gone in 2 years.

Any time a major bank releases a report saying a given course of action is too costly, too prohibitive, too blonde, or simply too impossible, it is nearly guaranteed that that is precisely the course of action about to be undertaken. Which is why all non-euro skeptics are advised to shield their eyes and look away from the just released report by UBS (of surging 3 Month USD Libor rate fame) titled "Euro Break Up - The Consequences." UBS conveniently sets up the straw man as follows: "Under the current structure and with the current membership, the Euro does not work. Either the current structure will have to change, or the current membership will have to change." So far so good. Yet where it gets scary is when UBS quantifies the actual opportunity cost to one or more countries leaving the Euro. Notably Germany. "Were a stronger country such as Germany to leave the Euro, the consequences would include corporate default, recapitalisation of the banking system and collapse of international trade. If Germany were to leave, we believe the cost to be around EUR6,000 to EUR8,000 for every German adult and child in the first year, and a range of EUR3,500 to EUR4,500 per person per year thereafter. That is the equivalent of 20% to 25% of GDP in the first year. " It also would mean the end of UBS, but we digress. Where it gets even more scary is when UBS, like many other banks to come, succumbs to the Mutual Assured Destruction trope made so popular by ole' Hank Paulson : "The economic cost is, in many ways, the least of the concerns investors should have about a break-up. Fragmentation of the Euro would incur political costs. Europe’s “soft power” influence internationally would cease (as the concept of “Europe” as an integrated polity becomes meaningless). It is also worth observing that almost no modern fiat currency monetary unions have broken up without some form of authoritarian or military government, or civil war." So you see: save the euro for the children, so we can avoid all out war (and UBS can continue to exist). The scariest thing, however, by far, is that for this report to have been issued, it means that Germany is now actively considering dumping the euro.